The Las Vegas Strip experienced a soft third quarter, according to Truist Securities’ latest room rate survey. Summer’s sluggish performance has extended into October, though analysts anticipate a potential rebound starting in November. Despite tourism promotions from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), the overall impact on room demand and pricing has been modest.
Barry Jonas, an analyst with Truist, noted that third-quarter expectations remain negative for major casino operators, but investors are increasingly focused on fourth-quarter performance. “We expect more clarity from G2E this week,” Jonas said. “If November’s positive trend carries through December, Las Vegas stocks such as Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts International could show improvement heading into the first quarter of 2026.”
In an effort to counter weaker visitation, the LVCVA launched a five-day citywide sales campaign in late September. The promotion featured discounted hotel rates, restaurant deals, and entertainment offers across numerous resort partners. The authority described the event as “a huge success” based on internal performance metrics.
Despite the promotional push, average Strip room rates dropped 5% in Q3. MGM’s rates declined by 7%, and Caesars saw a sharper 17% decrease. Weekends fell 3% to 18% across major operators, while weekday rates were down 7% to 13%.
Jonas added that October trends have worsened since the firm’s previous report. Rates are down 5% overall, including a 15% decline for MGM and 12% for Caesars. Weekend rates fell even further, down 13% to 25%, although weekdays fared better, with some moderate gains.
“The data is slightly weaker than our last survey,” Jonas said. “Promotional activity aimed at dispelling the ‘Vegas is expensive’ perception seems to have had limited short-term results.”
However, early November data shows signs of recovery. Proxy rates are up 2% year-over-year, with MGM rising 3% and Caesars increasing 1%. “This aligns with management expectations that November could mark a turning point,” Jonas noted. “We’re optimistic about fourth-quarter results and early 2026 performance, driven by a stronger convention and event calendar.”
Separately, J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer reported that U.S. regional casino visitation fell 11% month-over-month in September. Still, gaming revenue grew 2% year-over-year, marking continued though slower growth compared to July and August.
Politzer estimated third-quarter regional gaming revenue rose about 4% from the previous year — the strongest growth since early 2023. However, he cautioned that increased promotional activity may have limited the financial upside for operators. “While revenue growth looks positive, actual profitability remains mixed due to competitive promotional strategies,” Politzer said.
Overall, analysts view November as a critical month for determining whether Las Vegas can regain momentum heading into 2026, with regional markets showing steady but promotion-driven gains.
