JP Morgan Lifts Macau Casino Revenue Forecast with 13% Growth in 2025
Macau’s casino market is gaining momentum as major investment banks revise their outlook upward. JP Morgan now projects gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the second half of 2025 to rise by 13% year-on-year, marking the bank’s third upgrade in just three months. This outlook follows a 4% increase in the first half of the year and two strong months of double-digit growth in June and July. Analysts expect GGR to climb 12% in Q3 and 16% in Q4, setting the stage for continued expansion into early 2026.
Economic Drivers Behind the Surge
The recovery is being powered by wealthy Chinese tourists, who are spending more thanks to favorable financial shifts. A sharp drop in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate and higher liquidity in Hong Kong have made it easier to access betting capital. At the same time, the Chinese yuan has strengthened by nearly 4% since April, giving mainland visitors greater purchasing power. Stock market gains in China, Hong Kong, the United States, and a rally in cryptocurrency prices have further boosted consumer confidence.
Policy Support and Premium Mass Demand
Morgan Stanley highlights Beijing’s new focus on quality-driven economic growth as another factor aiding Macau’s rebound. This shift benefits entrepreneurs and high-net-worth individuals, many of whom dominate the premium mass and VIP gaming segments. High-profile entertainment events have also brought in more visitors, with analysts noting that such attractions stimulate both gaming and non-gaming spending.
Strong Impact on Casino Stocks
The positive trend has lifted shares of leading operators including Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and SJM Holdings, all of which surged in Hong Kong trading after July’s GGR results exceeded forecasts. HSBC Global Research emphasized that premium customers are gambling more frequently and with larger budgets, indicating that strong demand is sustainable. Macau’s total GGR for the first seven months of 2025 reached MOP 140.9 billion ($17.4 billion), a 6.5% increase over last year.
Profit Growth Outlook
Industry EBITDA is projected to accelerate, moving from 5% growth in Q2 to an estimated 16% expansion in Q4. Analysts across the sector agree that Macau’s casino market remains undervalued despite recent gains. The city appears positioned for continued growth, supported by both long-term structural changes and favorable short-term gambling trends.
